The Green Transition: Welcome, Green Times readers

Weekly analysis of the shift towards a new economy.

Dear Reader,

It’s Jonny Ball here. I write on economic growth for the New Statesman’s Spotlight team. We report on the nitty gritty of policy for all those wonks, white paper obsessives and assorted policy-bods out there (you know who you are). You can find our coverage here.

If you missed last week’s edition of Green Times, you may be wondering why India Bourke isn’t greeting you with her usual charm and panache. Alas, she has left us to move on to pastures new (and, of course, green), so you’re stuck with me, for now, and we can worry about charm and panache another time.

But I’m here to let you know about a new series of weekly emails evolving out of India’s wildly (get it?) successful Green Times newsletter.

Yes – Green Times is… erm… transitioning, to The Green Transition.

The Green Transition hopes to broaden Green Times. Because, in case you’ve been living in a cave for several years, you will have noticed that the world is expending quite a lot of effort (and money) building a different type of economy. We’re right in the middle of a transition from a fossil fuel-driven economy to a renewable one; from the internal combustion engine to battery power; and, in the post-Covid, post-Ukraine invasion era, a transition from hyper-globalisation, open markets and inter-dependence, to re-shoring, shorter supply chains and national resilience.

In Britain, these global shifts are increasingly influencing on our own policy landscape. Following the surprise victory of the Conservative candidate in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, the government is reportedly preparing to tone down its net zero commitments. The Tory victory was widely attributed to the unpopularity of Sadiq Khan’s expansion of London’s Ultra-low emission zone (Ulez). Labour, meanwhile, smarting from their loss, are getting jittery about promoting their green agenda, conscious of many voters’ reluctance to foot large, green bills in a cost-of-living crisis.

But while right-wing tabloids and MPs like to lump all green policies together, Ulez charges are qualitatively different from big public investment in energy networks, public transport infrastructure.

Whether you call it “Bidenomics”, “securonomics”, or the beginnings of a “post-neoliberal era”, governments around the world are adjusting to a period of increased state intervention, more active industrial policy, and of sizeable public investment in renewables, energy networks and green manufacturing industries. From the US’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan and the EU Green Deal, a new political dispensation is emerging that ties the green transition to economic reform. 

In a week when temperatures across Europe reach record levels, the transition is more urgent than ever. It’s this change, and the policy solutions that can make it a reality, that we’ll be looking at each week, straight into your inbox every Friday.

As ever, do get in touch by hitting reply. We’ll be back next week with the first full mail-out.

Welcome to The Green Transition.

Jonny Ball

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In Brief

It’s the economy, stooopid: While Labour have been falling over themselves to tone down their net zero/”tree hugger” vibes off the back of Uxbridge-Ulez-gate, a new briefing paper from the Green Alliance has laid out the economic benefits of green investment. The debate on climate commitments often looks like a tug of war between economic competence plus fiscal caution on the one hand, and bold radicalism and (Green) New Deal-ish big spending on the other (aka Pat McFadden vs Ed Miliband) But, says the Green Alliance’s head of economy Steve Coulter, green investment “will be pro-growth at a time of stagnating prosperity” reversing “decades of under-investment which have left the UK with a severely depleted capital stock”.

Even compared to traditional stimulus measures, green spending “creates more jobs and has higher short run multipliers”. We’ll see if the shadow Treasury team gets the memo. Read the full report here.

Buy back better: Following the announcement of Shell’s Q2 results (down over 50 per cent as energy prices fall), it was reported that the company promised to soften the blow to shareholders by continuing its share buyback programme and increasing its quarterly dividend. In response to these kinds of practices, the think tanks Common Wealth and the Institute of Public Policy Research called for new taxes on dividends and share buybacks in a report last year. These were included as part of the revenue-raising provisions of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Common Wealth also posted this series of Tweets (or is it X’s?) by their data analyst Sophie Flinders. The results show that the British multinational has paid shareholders 11 times more – and invested in fossil fuels six times more – than they have spent on low carbon investments.

Council of despair: Adam Lent, the chief executive of the New Local think tank, advised New Statesman readers not to lose faith: even as Westminster prevaricates over net zero, there are new opportunities for councils, combined authorities and devolved assemblies to show leadership on climate. “Neither main party offers a meaningful analysis of the emerging crisis, let alone a strategic vision as a response”, he writes. “Members of the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, mayors and councillors need to urgently fill the void left by Westminster.” Let's hope they're up to the task.

The Green Transition is a part of Spotlight, the New Statesman's online policy section and print supplement. Spotlight reports on policy for the people who shape it and the business leaders it affects. Explore our in-depth reporting and analysis here.

Thank you for reading.

Please send any news or comments to jonathan.Ball@newstatesman.co.uk