The Green Transition: Is this the way to not zero?
Weekly analysis of the shift towards a new economy.
Dear Readers,
Happy Friday. Jonny Ball here, associate editor of the New Statesman’s policy section, Spotlight. Find our coverage here.
We were all treated to massive not zero news this week in the form of a gigantic climb-down by Rishi Sunak from some of the government’s climate policies. (N.B. For updates on Sunak’s famous five pledges, you can consult Harry Clarke-Ezzidio’s handy pledge-tracker here.) Our sustainability correspondent, Megan Kenyon, has all the latest on how that news went down at Climate Week in New York and at the UN General Assembly. The worry is that the Prime Minister has squandered the UK’s excellent soft power in climate diplomacy for the sake of his (perhaps misguided) belief that he will see some electoral gain. Megan has the analysis below.
As usual, see below for links to some of the best climate and net zero-nomics publications from the New Statesman and around the internet (including exclusive comment pieces from London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Boston’s Mayor Michelle Wu).
Have a great weekend!
Jonny Ball
Is this the way to not zero?
It’s been a big week in the race to net zero. On Monday, the world’s climate policymakers descended on New York for a pre-Cop warm-up. Running concurrently with the UN General Assembly, Climate Week NYC played host to a range of key figures in the net zero world including several familiar characters from the UK’s green transition. Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, the Ofgem chief exec, Jonathan Brearley, and Tory MP and climate aficionado Chris Skidmore all featured as panellists over two days of discussion.
As Climate Week got underway, back across the Atlantic a storm was brewing. A story leaked to the BBC on Tuesday evening revealed plans for a Sunak back-track. The Prime Minister would be watering down several of the UK’s net zero commitments including delaying the ban on petrol and diesel cars by five years and cancelling energy efficiency requirements. (It also included Sunak “scrapping” a raft of policies – including a meat tax, and “proposals” for forcing households to have seven bins – which everyone is pretty certain didn’t actually exist.)
Rowing back on the UK’s net zero measures while the majority of your green colleagues are out of the country is a shrewd move. But it doesn’t stop them having an opinion.
Skidmore, who led the government’s Mission Zero independent review, said the announcement will “potentially destabilise business confidence”.
“We have the potential to seize an economic opportunity as many countries are doing, rather than let it slip through our fingers,” he added.
Former environment minister, Zac Goldsmith, agreed. He accused the Prime Minister of “dismantling” the UK’s credibility on climate. Over at the Conservative Environment Network, director Sam Hall, described the announcement as “unnecessary”.
Some commentators have questioned whether all of this can be traced back to the saga of Ulez. In Uxbridge, the Conservatives picked a battle over carbon emissions and won a surprise by-election victory by holding Boris Johnson’s old seat against Labour insurgents. But it’s likely the government’s net zero cool-down has been brewing for some time.
After listening to some of this week’s international discussions in New York, Sunak’s back-track sounds pretty jarring.
His announcement was caveated with a promise to be “honest” to the British people about the “difficult choices” we need to make to get to net zero. But his argument that the UK can’t be expected to front the immediate cost of installing heat pumps or retrofitting their home reads as disingenuous. Measures like home retro-fitting, and getting the electricity grid to run entirely zero-carbon (and thereby breaking our addiction to expensive, imported gas) will save consumers billions, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. Investment in green technology is stimulating a boom in manufacturing jobs and rapid economic growth in the US. It should be posed as an investment, not an expense.
This was precisely the case made by several figures this week in New York. In a frank discussion, Brearley told delegates of Climate Week NYC, that “what customers in Europe…have been through in the past two years has been close to devastating”.
He described “genuine distress” at the astronomical rise in energy bills from an average of £1,000 per year prior to the fuel crisis, to £2,500 per year at the end of 2022.
Elsewhere in New York, at the UN Climate Ambition Summit, Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, made a similar point. She described the “significant economic costs” arising from global warming and added that climate change presents a great investment opportunity. Yellen concluded: “The need for action is urgent”.
The economic case for going back on net zero is “analytically very weak”, Brearley said. He explained that coming out of the crisis, policymakers, politicians and regulators in the UK must act quickly. Arguing that we should embrace risk, and accept cost in order to act quickly, Brearley added: “We need pace over perfection.”
And he’s right. Time really is running out. But with the government’s newfound penchant for dithering and delay, missing our legally binding 2050 net zero target is looking more likely than not.
Follow Megan on X/Twitter, and read more of her coverage here
In Brief
Please Rishi, just stop: Robbie MacPherson, political advisor at Uplift, writes that “cutting the green crap”, as David Cameron famously put it, and weaponising net zero, is not smart politics for a government facing an uphill battle to retain power.
London (and Boston) Calling: Mayors Sadiq Khan and Michelle Wu have penned this joint piece on how their cities are divesting from fossil fuels, using the financial muscle of their public pension funds and other mechanisms to make the switch to greener investments.
Respect my (local) authority: Our Research Brief series, which brings you a quickfire summary of a policy publication each week, looked at a University of Cambridge paper on why local planning rules are slowing down the green transition. The Levelling-Up Bill (currently making its way through parliament) could have the answer. And Megan reports on that amendment to the bill, too.
Beyond retro(fitting): The IPPR think tank has a great report on what’s going wrong with the UK’s retrofitting policy, and why it isn’t taking off. Read that here.
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The Green Transition is a part of Spotlight, the New Statesman's online policy section and print supplement. Spotlight reports on policy for the people who shape it and the business leaders it affects. Explore our in-depth reporting and analysis here.
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Please send any news or comments to: jonathan.Ball@newstatesman.co.uk